Nifty exactly hit 161.8% of the amplitude of first top at 4488 (high 4495), which is a first 5th wave projection for the nifty, but as per Elliot Wave Theory, one wave have to be extended and its usually the 3rd wave so crossing this high (1.618 of 1st wave amplitude) will target .618 of 1-3 wave amplitude where 1.618 top will be considered as 3rd wave top in that case. And the .618 of 1-3 amplitude will be at 4737. Before that 4586-4647 will be intermediate resistances.
Now as we are doing analysis for correctives, we can very well see that market has successfully created a ABC movement halting @ 4435 (low 4437) creating a pattern BC=AB*1.618. So for the coming session 4435 is the biggest and most important zone to watch out for. With a successful testing of 4435 as it did yesterday by making low of 4437 would imply higher levels given above. Breaking 4435 will make nifty weak can bring it to 4415 first, and then a failure to cross 4465/69 would bring it down to 4372, and then it'll face resistances @ 4405 and 4435. Below 4373, 4340 is possible and below that 4247 can be on the cards, but remember one thing, there wont be any clue of weakness above 4435 and crossing 4465/70 will just make it fly to our next targets. So for the coming sessions,
Supports: 4435/30 main support. Below that intra weakness can bring 4415-20 first, and failure bounce near 4465/70 and not sustaining above it would bring 4373-69. Main weakness below 4372/4340 for target 4247.
Resistances: 4465/40-4489/95-4586-4647-4737. (All future levels, 15 and 5 minutes chart attached respectively) Take care and trade safe.
Friends today I am going to post a interesting chart. Take a look... Watch closely. Blue Channel is the main path for Nifty. Inside that the movement is again sub-divided by two sub channels which are identical. Price broke out from the first sub channel and hit main channel's upper band. Then once again a formation of sub channel (red) took place. Of course identical to the previous (turquoise) one. Inside the sub channel the price movements are proving to be identical also. Enclosed in the pink boxes symbolizing that fact. So can we say nifty is exactly behaving in the same way which it did in its last move? Yes we can. Now the price projection. See in the first break out, it did hit exactly 1.618 extension of the previous move, and that was confirmed by the hit at main channel (blue). Let us project in this case also, and where it's hitting? 4426 is the place. Can anybody remember what was the level we discussed about above 4356/62? See the first line of this post. It was 4419. So once again 4420 zone is getting confirmed. And after that? Another sub-channel? Further expansion and extension with greater speed? Corrections? Will take that later on. But above 4365, 4420 looks valid now. Above that more bullishness. So for this expiry,
Supports: 4312-4270, below that it can come down to 4244-4221 Resistances: 4356/62, use 4370 for confirmation. Above that 4391-4420/27. Once above 4370, 4365/56 will act as important supports. That's all friends!! Please don't have a great expiry as I can't say that. Lolzzz. Have a great trading day and weekend. (All Future levels, 15 minutes chart attached)
Hi friends! This the chart of today's movement of Nifty Future to demonstrate that how i did obtain today's support 4272, requested by one of my special friend Shisir. Hope everyone will like this. And Shisir will also. Thank you.
Another day of extreme volatility ended with a excellent demonstrations of technical credibility. The low made at opening of the day was bang on our main resistance 4184 (by making low 4181) thus asserted the bullishness for the day. It went up broke 4205 and hit exactly at 4236, our 3rd resistance for the day. Retraced and hold the low and shoot off, and yes it has closed bullish for the day. For the coming session above today's high it will try for 4336-4356/62. 4356/62 will be a important place to watch out for. Above which nifty can comfortably make another 50 odd up to 4391 and 4419. For the day 4272 is important, below that 4244 and 4212 is possible. Nifty is looking good for short term and will try to go up, but in any any case I feel these levels will provide clear ideas to trade quite comfortably. So for the coming session,
Supports: 4272 below that 4244-4212 is possible. Resistances:Above today's high 4310-4336-4356/62, above this 4391-4419 is possible. (All future levels, 15 minutes chart attached) Take care friends and please give suggestions to improve your blog. Thank you so much.
What a day guys... what a day! It was a perfect set up for short. We made a high of 4251 (Resistance given @ 4258) and came down to our support 4205 (low made 4208 in the morning). Gave a mild bounce but failed to cross the high and broke down completely. If we do a Elliot corrective projection, the main supports for the market usually are, BC=.618*AB BC=AB BC=1.618*AB respectively. If we do the same with nifty levels, AB=4620-4186=434 points & BC will be .618*434, 434 and 434*1.618. While considering BC=AB, we are getting 4527 (second high where B is drawn on picture) as point B. So BC is also 434 points from 4527, that's 4527-434=4093, And yesterday's low is 4092. The given 4130 is the same level got distorted because of my intra-day data aberration, where that 4620 high was recorded 4590. Anyway, I'll take care of that from further posts. So holding this 4092 is really good at least from short term/intra day perspective (to get a chance to exit). And when I am posting this Dow Jones is up 200 points, so certainly we gonna get a decent bounce from here, but how much? Can it negate the short term reversal? There will be number of of overhead barrier to cross and once again expiry will be full of action and volatility. For the coming session 4184/4210 is key, above that nifty will target 4236-4261-4279. Below 4279 any resistance can be a selling point, but it will surely gain some momentum above 4210 (for intra day). On the lower side it has support at 4126 and 4161(if it makes gap up above that). So for coming session,
Supports: 4161-4126/35-4011-4090 (below 4090) 4025-3938... up to 3825 Resistances: 4161-4184/4205, above that 4236-4261-4279. (Support or resistance properties of 4161 will be determined by the amplitude of gap up opening) (All future levels, 15 minutes chart added) Take care.. Trade safe!!
Nifty bounced twice exactly from our support of 4212 by making low 4210 and 4205 respectively. It crossed 4266 just once for 9 points but could not sustain. For the coming session 4258/76 is very important for any further upside momentum, and below 4205/4200 is very important. The coming session may turns out to be a breakout day, so unbiased approached is required for tomorrow's trade. crossing 4272 may well bring 4303/4315 level, and crossing 4315 convincingly can bring 4345 and 4390 as well. Above 4390 there remains a possibility of another 150-200 point up move. So for the coming session,
Supports: 4205/4200, below that can target 4184-4161-4130-4025 Resistances:4058/72, above that can target 4303/4315-4345-4390
So nifty gave a intra day bounce from a very crucial point around 4180 from the short term perspective. Nifty remains weak though as long it's trading below 4303. Sustaining below that level can bring nifty again down to more lower levels. But as we bounced off from a very important place I personally believe, coming session is going to be a narrow and volatile one as very short term is extremely overbought and larger term is nicely poised and becoming a buy for coming days. For tomorrow trading above 4266 can bring 4285 and 4297/4303 level which I feel will be shorting zone with minimal s/l of 1015 points. Above 4303 nifty can show strength for the day and head towards 4327/30, 439 and 4426 afterwards respectively. Below 4232 nifty will be weak and can fall down to 4212-4184 and previous lows of 4155. But as shorter term remains in corrective mood and extended correction can bring nifty down to 4130-4025-3936-3820 positionally. So be careful on the upside as sudden fall as a correction can bring those levels on lower side which indeed will be buying levels for larger term perspective.
Supports: 4232/30. Below that will be weak . 4212-4184 and above given levels. Resistances: above 4266, 4285 and 4297/4303 most important. above that 4327/30-4391-4430. (all future levels, 15 Minutes chart attached)
On the first half of the last session nifty took support from the given level of 4231 by making low of 4243. We witnessed upward momentum which brought the exact resistance level of 4325 by making high of 4328. Indeed market experienced a handsome selling pressure which helped nifty to get back and break morning levels. We broke 4325 convincingly and closed below that. And we have closed weak. For the coming session 4205 is crucial, below which 4185-80 will come. Further weakness can bring nifty down to 4131 to 4070 odd levels. But in that case the current upward momentum will be questionable. On the upside 4225 and 4254 will be immediate hurdles to cross above which it will taste 4280 and 4330-35 respectively. Undoubtedly we are negatively biased, but at the same time I personally feel positional buying level is around the corner. Trade on the short side for the day and seeking for a positional buying opportunity can be a wise trading strategy.
Supports: 4205-4184-4130-4070 Resistances: 4225-4254-4280-4335 (All future levels, hourly chart attached) Take care, happy trading.
Note: Sustaining 4205 on the opening bell, it will become an immediate buy.
We made a low right there at our support (given 4280; low 4275 at the opening bell) and bounced exactly 100 points in the beginning of the day. Went up 12 points from our resistance to 4372 and fell again, though it could not cross 4410 ever. Now for today 4360 and 4231/4220 is very crucial indeed. I personally feel 4230 is going to be a buying zone. Still 4180 remains as a strongest support. On the upside nifty will face selling pressure around 4309-4325, above which it will run up to 4365/4395/4410. Above 4410 larger momentum can be seen.
Hello all! Again a gap up and a huge volatile day we witnessed. This above chart was pre-posted at the very beginning of the week and see what it has done,. It crossed the very important BC=1.618*AB yesterday and took the support exactly there, the place is 4185. So friends as long we are above that 4185 level, technically we can not think about any weakness on the price movement in near term. I know, looking at the rally on the last couple of days one may get sense of a correction is around the corner. There lies the twist of tale. It's indeed very strong as long it's above 4185 and for the coming session I feel 4300-4280 is crucial below which it can get weak to get to the level around 4248 and 4216. The intra day chart is completely distorted for smaller levels and can take 1-2 trading sessions to get to the normal state. But in any case 4186 is important, most important for the short term.
Supports: 4300-4280.. below this further weakness towards 4215. Resistances: 4360-4410 .. above 4410 it may show very large momentum again.
In any case please maintain strict stop loss. (All Future levels,Daily chart attached) Take care and trade safe.
Hello friends, nothing much to say as it was like nothing much to do. I am still dumbstruck and blog struck as well. Hope the strategy we discussed about CALL-PUT together on the 15th of April has worked well in this extreme situation if at all anybody had considered it. If missed, please don't be depressed because these sort of frustration can lead towards bigger massacre. I personally feel market should at least target 4734 and 4963 (conservative targets). It's a handsome difference from where we closed today, needless to say that I am not a Gap up-Gap down expert, so can't ensure that it wont happen in today's fashion. Jokes apart, I really feel time to buy on dips (from a larger time frame perspective) is back again. So be patient and buy in a dip for investment. And for tomorrow and shorter term 4474-4504 is likely (likely?? LOL..) to be the roof for the bulls to halt a bit. and we are safe for upside (even in intra day :D) as long 4327 is holding for the bulls. So not sure how much can be done for intra day tomorrow also, but for surely keep those relative longer term targets in mind I gave above in green. Will update longer term picture more clearly with couple of days once again. Till then trade safe and trade long on dips. Take care.
Hi friends! What a week!! The whole India reaches out for stability the UPA govt once again got a big thumbs up and in a even bigger way. West Bengal (from where I belong to) came out to vote for the change and made it happened in a convincing way. There are new air all around, now lets make it more fresh, more free. Now talking about the market it's sure that market will cheer the astounding victory of UPA in the central. But I am unsure as the so called fund-a-mental analysts who are talking about market will go into the 12K-16K range and beyond while suggesting trade nifty between 1000 point range. Nobody can specify the answer neither anyone can do so. What we can do is go with the trend without disobeying it's actual nature. Friends I have surmised and asserted that nifty taking out 3780 convincingly can target 41xx in the coming days. I am starting off my charts study sticking to that views. We have convincingly crossed previous 2 places where any corrective ABC can halt/stop. But it didn't happen. Now technically our next target should be BC=1.618 * AB. On Nifty Future EoD chart that place coming near 4199-4222 zone. Now to validate that,
As per Elliot wave theory any 3 wave (ABC) correction against the 5 wave up move generally finds it's biggest and strongest support/resistance near or just before the 1st wave bottom or vice versa. Now that BC=1.618*AB which I showed on the first chart getting ended right there at the bottom of first leg of the August fall. So from that scenario indeed 4199-4222 is place to look out for. Now trying to get the recent picture.
and it's quite clear every Fib level extension and the replacement complementing each other hence indicating towards the level 4121-4127, which in my money will be one of the important place to look out for. Now take a look at closing chart.
This is a weekly chart. A top-down fib calculation indicating the validity of the bottom as well as the various pivots. Pivot is at 3965-78. A forward down-top Fib calculation also getting merged at the same place as well the 261.8 extension is also coinciding. So we can say a weekly close (sometime day close) above 3980 can confirm the possibilities of the above discussed targets to be reached. All targets will be activated only after 3800 is crossed as discussed earlier. So friends for the coming days I am expecting 4121-4127 even 4222 once we cross 3800. And we may extend further but will discuss later as want to take a medium strides for a rational trading. Have a stable trading with stable Govt.
What a volatile day we faced once again, we broke down 3585 but bounce back again. But on the upside we could not cross 3646. Friends I am suffering from a viral flu, so i am just giving the levels for coming session. I'll post full fledged analysis by next week for sure. On the upside above 3620 it can move up to 3643 and 3689 respectively. Big support lies around 3569 odd level. below that 3531 and 3505 is possible below which one may consider positional shorts. It will be once again a highly volatile kind of a market, where very few traders can trade successfully. Be light on your position. So for the coming session,
Friends tomorrow will be the weekly closing , after that we will take poll result cue, and it can be a relatively bigger move than the last few days. I'll request traders to be empty with future position. Risky trade can opt for a strategy by taking same number of out of the money calls and puts, i.e 3900/4000 CE and 3500/3450 PE. Big move can give a handsome return in one of them without eroding the the other one entirely. But i repeat it's for only risky traders who has the capacity to take moderates losses and quite aware of the risk. Trade very carefully, Take care.
Guys continued selling pressure is around that 3740 zone and it could not cross that. I repeatedly tried to warn to get light on the crucial resistances. Now for the coming session 3625 holds the key, below which 3600-3585 can come very easily. Below 3575 a big crack can be seen and it will become a clear cut short for coming 1-2 sessions for target 3528 and lower levels. So all in all 3600-3585 is going to be a very important for tomorrow. And on the upside 3657 will be the point of interest above which again me may test highs. So as a whole,
Supports: Below 3625 ..... 3600/3585 (important zone)/3528 and further lower levels. Resistances: 3646/3657
(All future levels, Hourly chart attached) Trade safe and be light. Take care.
Guys I am back as my Internet problem is resolved late night. Will not take much time to Give the levels. Nifty took the support quite smoothly yesterday, and confirmed it again with low 3537 and open-low same (there is a intra day theory in the market on open-high/open-low same, and some analysts teach that technique almost in every scenario in the market, but studying chart carefully can prove that it works only at important support and resistance levels). anyway for the session coming 3706-3715 is crucial. above which 3742/3778-80 is very much possible. but I am once again repeating to be light in position as voting result is breathing on our shoulder, and 9 out of 10 time technical crucial levels will face that important fundamental phenomena. Above 3780-3800 we can target 41XX on the nifty. But that is far away now, we will discuss about that later. Support for the day lies at 3658-3646. Here it is:
Friends good evening to you all. I am very sorry to inform that a massive Internet break down took place in our area. And our telephone headquarter is also closed tomorrow due to the vote. So quite unsure whether I will able to post it for tomorrow or not. Anyway I hope you have all enjoyed and got some help at least from the view for yesterday. Again the 3533 level came to rescue and low made for the day was 3537. Can't post the chart as I am on my friends laptop, but given 3572 level showed a proper breakout. Now again 3740 and 3790 level will be or next resistance to face off above 3704. But these all levels are prone to distort as I have manually tried to come out with these levels. But I hope these levels give some idea of nifty future levels for tomorrow. Nifty is looking good but as we discussed 3740/3785 is long term barrier. please be light on your trade as vote result and long term resistances coinciding. Please take care and trade safe. I'll be back as soon it is possible for me. Bye all!!
Hello again to all my friends! What a day, full of action, nifty could not move beyond 3649/74 zone and fell hard. Yesterday stated "above 3649-3660 there will be again some interest to retest/break the highs". But nifty failed to do so after making 3657.50 and it fell to right above the head of 3533. Done for the day and now the point is what's next in such a important and political juncture. 3533/25 indeed the most crucial support zone for shorter time period for nifty. But will it sustain? Friends for tomorrow 3555/72 is important. If it can cross then only we can take some bullish view for intra-day. And not crossing those levels it can certainly break 3525 to resume the fall up to 3499-3441/35. And that's not the end friends, it can extend it's fall down to 3265 level. Yes that's very much possible. Take care friends and trade carefully especially about your long position. As we still in a uptrend, some delay in going long can harm nothing if it resumes it's upmove again, but at same time we are may be around a impending top. So be carful with your longs. Please maintain STRICT STOP LOSSES. And rock. So to sum up,
Hi friends, welcome back after the weekend and guess what we are once again at a very interesting state in the market. Last week Nifty Future fell off from 3728, our projection was 3745. Today I am going to re-post a chart which i did post as my very first submission here highlighting the current scenario. We took a look at some weekly Ma's (moving averages), and that gave a quite perfect picture about the market at that point of time. The main barriers were at 3540-3570, and I argued that will be the place to look out for, and with a surprise it made a huge leap to cross that area (technically which is correct, any technical levels validity is adjudged not only by the price movement at that certain level/point but Gap ups and Gap downs do symbolizes its logical existence). So as soon it crossed 3570-3540, its next destination was somehow certain towards3780 (click on the level and it was shown), but that's on the chart made on 21st April. World moved a lot from there. The current scenario is like........... That 3780 MA on the 21st April right now is at 3733 (also two Fibonacci retraction is coinciding at 3730), and other two MA are at 3570 and 3530. Now from the previous price action (where the had is) we can surmise, we have to wait for some larger movement on either side until 3735/45-3530/20 are getting broken convincingly. And believe me, hourly chart is also indication towards the same level.
3533 is the place where the most important support is placed for the coming few sessions. 3735-3745 is shown on the chart for numerous occasions in the past. On the upside, above 3649-3660 there will be again some interest to retest/break the highs. I personally feel it will be a narrow on upside and relatively large on the downside kinda market for coming session (unless any Gap up happens again). So I would suggest to trade the range as it comes and be light. Any naked positions should be avoided and hedged, because impulse and irrationality should not be there at the time of voting and forming government for our country. Big losses can lead to impulsive voting. So for coming session,
Supports: 3591/3570/3533-3525 Resistances: 3649-3674/3694/3717-3735 (All future levels) (Weekly & hourly chart attached) Happy trading and happy VOTING. The fight will be in between who wanna see RED and who doesn't. Specially for the West Bengal people this week. Take care. Jai Hind!
Hi friends, it's 3:30 in the night and I am updating my blog for tomorrow because of my server problem from evening. For the session coming the main supports are placed at 3741 and below that 3616. Below 3616 there will further weakness which can lead nifty down to 3570 and 3508. From a trader perspective 3508 really hold the key to maintain the momentum upward. On the upside resistances at 3693 and above that 3717 and 3735 is very much possible. So as a whole keep close eye on 3641-3616 level to decide the trend for the day.
Supports: 3641-3616-3570-3509 Resistances: 3693-3717-3735/45-3785/93 Trade safe and take care!
So some selling pressure was seen ages after. A sudden fall from 3725 bring down to our most crucial 3610 level by making 3615 low for the day. For the coming session the same 3610 holds the key, below which it may get weak and come down to 3590 & 3565. I feel in any case we mustn't break 3565 zone to maintain the short term bullishness. On the upside 3648 is key for further up move up to 3665-3675. above which i feel we will again head for 3730-3745. I personally feel we will head up in the morning near 3645 zone, and that will be trend decider for the day.So to sum up,
Support: 3610/3590/3565 Resistance: 3645/3665-3675 All Future level. (5 min chart attached)
Hi guys! 3689 worked like a charm and it was a double whammy. Firstly in the morning it went up to 3685 and came down and again went up to 3693 and closed 30 points below that. In the coming session 3610 holds the key for the nifty. Though the pivotal will be 3650. A decisive break below that level will bring 3610 if not lower.sustaining 3650 will show 3693,3709 and further levels will be given later. A break below 3610 will be a hold for the shorts for the targets 3575-3565/3530/3505. But that's a far away from here. Concentrating on 3650 can bring good to intra day trade for today. So to sum up for the day,
Support: 3650/3640/3610 resistance:3684-93/3709/3745 All Future levels (5 Minutes chart attached)
Absolutely mind blowing move and a perfect example of bull power at it's very best. I was not really expecting to cross the 3540-70 hurdle so effortlessly. Though a gap up on the opening bell saved us from shorting because of some meaningful levels. Arguing about the current trend I asserted on the 27th of April that we will try to short near 3540-3570 with a S/L of 3615 with resistance stated at 3605 on that particular post. That 3605 was a 261.8% extension (which is a 5th wave projection as per Elliot Wave Theory), and it took me with unguarded surprise when it established days low as 3604, which signifies more strength. On the posted hourly chart today I have given all the targets for nifty and I really feel it's seeking for 3740-3780. And yes it's short term bullishness will be intact as long 3605 holds. So to sum up for today,
Hi friends! I am back with my same old charts and levels. As I stated in earlier occasions that nothing have changed significantly on the short term charts and still it seems bulls will take it to the 3540-3570 levels to reevaluate the strength of the current trend. So till then there are very few things to do rather than waiting for the above stated level, and of course one can buy in a significant dip, but I'll seriously suggest to do it with very small quantity when it comes to buying. Today I have attached Eod Nifty Future chart showing a tiredness on the upward momentum in Nifty. The daily RSI (14) has already created a clear Lower Top-Lower Bottom formation,though the price is yet to confirm the weakness. The lower top signifying a negative/bearish divergence and it can also be called a failure swing (hidden divergence with 2nd top below the overbought level).It is also indicating a advanced breakdown making a Lower Bottom. Though I am not a believer of indicators, but a rational use of these tools can bring some valuable information, specially where we are very near to a big pivotal/resistance zone. The EMA on the chart is exactly coincides with our price projection making it even more important. The exact level is 3566. And the third whammy comes when we get 200 SMA (chart not posted) on weekly chart hits the same level at 3569 once again. 3565-3570 is going to be big, quite big i guess. So to sum up for the coming session,
Support: 3427-32/3404/3364
Resistance: 3511/3542/3560-66-70
Note: Don't take heavy position on buy side from positional perspective.
