Google+ February 2010 ~ NIFTY DEMYSTIFIED

Friday, February 26, 2010


Today I am not going to post any chart as all the levels on either sides are still in tact and that too quite for sometime now. Nifty still could not manage to go above 4885/90 and menacingly not also has broken down the 4835/30 zone discussed earlier .As big B’day is here, will humbly request to trade less/nothing today. Immediate range of the market is still @ 4885/90-4830 and the broader range can be 4960/75 to 4750-4715/10. Traders able to match these levels in each time frame and co-relate them, only should trade, though it’s my personal opinion.
Supports: As told that all levels are in tact so 4835 is the support initially. Below that 4820 is mild one and 4808/4800-4785. Further breakdown can bring 4750-4715/10 positional supports.
Resistances: 4885/90 .. above that 4920/25. Further breakout will bring 4960/85.

Have a safe trading day and hope I do not have to post the same in coming week!! Need a direction badly now.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010


Supports: 4840 is immediate. Below that 4808/00-4785. Positional supports lies @ 4750-4715/10.
Resistances: 4890 stays as it is. Above that 4910/25 possible. Further breakout will bring 4960-4985, which can be a reversal points for the down move.
Trades are advisable to take only after a valid breakout or breakdown from a certain level.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010


4835 provided support as discussed yesterday. Nifty is absolutely range bound between 4920 and 4800. But some impulsive action from upside down implying some impending weakness in it.
Supports: 4860 will be the first support zone. Below that 4840 is another crucial level. Violation of this level can bring 4820-4808/00-4785. Below that 4750-4715/25 are achievable.
Resistances: 4895 and 4915, a confirmatory breakout above 4925 will bring 4945-4975/85 to decide further movements.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010


Expectations of Budget & expiry in this week resulted into a very nervous to the market. Market reacted from the given levels of 4925 but certainly inconsistent in it's movements. As of now 4919 holds the key to the up side.
Supports: 4835 is immediate. Below that 4800-4785 can possible before any further breakdown. Below that 4720/10 is possible before any handsome pullback.
Resistances: As said above, 4919 is the key now. Above 4920, it can again move towards 4960/75 zone to decide the further moves.
Trade slow, trade safe.
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Monday, February 22, 2010


Supports: 4800 is immediate. But as one downward impulse is in course, targets can be deep below 4795/4790. 4750-4715 will be the immediate target in that case.
Resistances: 4885 very important place. Above that 4905-4925 is possible in no time. Further BO can bring 4955-4960/80 before deciding any further moves.
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Friday, February 19, 2010


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Thursday, February 18, 2010


It touched 4829 (resistance given 4825) before reacting today, and nifty and bank nifty both are nearing bigger resistances. And as budget is in the corner we can expect a bigger move on wither side (technically down from resistances).
Supports: The shorter term impulse and longer term corrective is unchanged till 4960-4985 is crossed. Will be wise to book longs and going short with strict s/l. Day's supports are lying @ 4870/75-4840-4805. Below that resumption of the downtrend is most likely.
Resistances: Same lies @ 4925-4960-4985. These are all positional target of nifty which is partially achieved. Closing of longs would be a better idea. But in case goes above 4985 and sustains, 5050-5080/85 is possible. Be light with your position and experienced trader can look at hedging opportunity because of special event like budget.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010


At last short term impulse which was being discussed on the bog for last couple of days witnessed a good break out. Although it's still in bearish zone and yet to confirm a the reversal of the bigger down move of 5303-4667, it was worth playing long. Now as it has broken past 4875 as well, it can have some more fuel to for upside.
Supports: Continuation of the up move is intact. Most crucial supports for this up move are placed @ 4825-4785. Violation of these two levels can bring 4740-4705 in no time.
Resistances: 4920/25 is immediate. Above that more bullishness from intra perspective can be seen, which can bring 4960-4970/85. Positional longs should be booked once on given resistances.
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Monday, February 15, 2010


The current range in nifty is decreasing gradually and yet to give the confirmatory movement on either side after witnessing a mild correction on the upside against the downtrend on hourly. Sideways move had resulted into cluster of supports as well as resistances on either side, before any decisive movement on shorter time frame.
Supports: 4775 and 4750/52 are immediate, below that some more weakness can show 4705/08 before final breakdown. Below that 4640 and positional target of 4540-4440.
Resistances: 4805 and above that 4835 possible. Above that 4855-75 can come.Further violation of 4880 zone can bring 4920-4940/55 zone and decide next movements.
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Supports: Very short term trend seems uptrending. Supports for going long would be @ 4815-4790/85 zone. Below that 4740-4720 is important positional support zone. 
Resistances: 4855-4875 as discussed. Above that 4915/20-4960 are very much possible.
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Thursday, February 11, 2010


So 4825 worked brilliantly (high made 4823.5) and still holds the good for bears. The corrective up looks to be weakening as long 4825 is breaking on the upside. Though as discussed on yesterday's post that an 5 wave impulse is in course in the smaller time frame on the upside, so that's the last hope for the bulls to make this corrective up a bit more lengthier.
Supports: Immediate support is 4745. As told previously, as the very short term chart exhibiting impulse upward movements, so 4715-4690 is the most critical place to sustain this upside rally. Below that 4640 can come in no time. Further break down can bring 4520-4440 positionally.
Resistances: 4765-75. Above that It can witness some recovery upto 4795-4805. Main hurdle still @ 4825. Above which 4860/75 can bring very easily. More strength can bring 4915-4935-4955/60.
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Wednesday, February 10, 2010


Support discussed for the day was 4735 and made a low of 4735, resistance was 4825, high made 4825. Shorter time frame initiated a impulse move from the support zone discussed. Currently that's still on and positionally targeting a higher price.
Supports: 4785 is critical and it has closed just there for the day. Below that it can witness some weakness for intraday up to 4760-4725, where lies the most probable last support for this current up move. Further breakdown can bring 4700-4680-4640.
Resistances: 4825 is immediate. Above that it can turn more bullish for further target towards 4845-4860/75. 4875 will be an important hurdle for intra, where violation of that can certainly bring 4915-4935-4955/60.
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Tuesday, February 9, 2010


Yesterday I mentioned about the 4685-4640 before any considerable bounce on Nifty. It might not exactly touched 4640, but came will into the support zone discussed. So as the correction continues on the upside, it'll leave bulls in the two mind, whether the down move is over or another fresh leg of down move is pending. Looking at the magnitude of the down move, the current intra gains look very much like a correction and not a reversal of the current downtrend. 
But one thing I want make very clear as some people also seeks for longer term trend and find it confusing to gauge that from my intra day analysis and levels that longer term uptrend is still intact and kicking. Intermediate/medium term trend is surely down. Very soon I'll be posting a probable path and projection of Nifty for longer term (as a very handsome correction is on, I personally believe that it is the right time to invest, if it is uptrend at all :-).. will be unfolded in my longer term chart). Practically it takes out the juice from one when it comes to juxtapose 2 different time frame, when in a different mode, to take a trading/investing decision.
Supports: Crucial and real tough job to take your trading decisions. 4740/35 is the immediate support level, below that 4710 is very much possible. According to me, it's important for Nifty to hold any of these two levels to resume the up move. Below that 4670-4640/30 zone.
Resistances: 4825 as discussed yesterday, still intact. Above that 4840 is another important hurdle. So 4825/40 can very well be the BO point for the upside. Above that 4885/95-4975 and further levels discussed possible. But remember, intermediate downtrend will be completely negated only it manages to cross and trade above 5085 level.
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Monday, February 8, 2010


Supports: 4734 and 4710 is the zone for intra bulls to protect. Though as long 4790 is not taken out decisively, it'll be riskier to buy on dips from 1-2 days positional perspective. Below that 4685-4640 can be the targets before any considerable bounce.
Resistances: 4786/90 is the main hurdle. Any weakness around that zone can be bad news for bulls. Above that the immediate intra day trend can take a small reversal towards discussed level 4825/30-4885-4920/35.
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Friday, February 5, 2010


Market has been sold off again from the critical resistance zone after session of extreme volatility. Though technically it's still holding the 4800 zone, we can say correction is still in course on the upside. But the magnitude of volume with which it has fallen, the corrective uptrend may well be under threat.
Supports: 4800 is the key for this corrective up move to hold. Sustaining below that can bring sell off towards 4760-4730 again. 4730 will the very crucial place to look out. Further break down can bring 4640 and much lower levels lie 4450-4400 positionally.
Resistances: 4905/4910 is crucial. Above that 4950 will be the reversal for further targets towards 4990/95-5030-5080/85.
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Thursday, February 4, 2010


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I included one interesting Ema chart with it's various vertical shifts in post for 28th January views for Nifty. So today I am just updating and re-posting that chart first to examine the move guided or identified by the Ema. My students will surely able to relate the chart and the procedure of it's formations and applications.
The Ema lines have successfully provided support to this uptrend as of now. And right now hovering above the 144 with it's -2.5% vert. shift taking support successfully @ 4900. 
Supports: 4890/4900 is most critical zone to hold for nifty for any further up move. A convincing break below 4880 can terminate the immediate bullishness again for downward targets of 4855-4810-4785.
Resistances: As 4939 has been breached, it can have some bullish significance. But a confirmed breakout above 4955 can certainly bring 4985/90-5025/30-5085/95.
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Wednesday, February 3, 2010


Supports: Immediate and probably the main support for the last up move lies at 4795, A confirmed break below that can certainly bring 4760-4730 again, with a target of 4640 & 4400 positionally.
Resistances: Main resistance which can bring a potential intermediate reversal is lying @ 4940, above that it can certainly hit 4980/90-5040-5080/90. Intra day hurdles are placed @ 4870-4895.
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Tuesday, February 2, 2010


4820 was given as the final breakdown level for the last session. 4822 was the place from where buying emerged and nifty continued move up right from there till the end. Though 4935 zone is not crossed, but demand at the support zone (first from 4760, then 4820) is indicating towards a very immediate term uptrend.
Supports: 4885 is critical for the day. Below that 4870-4845 is again possible. Further breakdown can bring 4820-4785. Below 4785 current up move is very likely to get negated.
Resistances: As the intra impulse is on, the target/resistances are relatively higher than the support levels. 4925/35 is very important. Above that another strong breakout is possible for 4975/80-5015/20 zone.
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Monday, February 1, 2010


Nifty current low 4822, discussed 4820 as the breakdown level. But 4785 ha to be broken for the cancellation of this corrective up move.
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Nifty reversed from the well discussed zone of 4760-4730 by hitting a low of 4757 on the last session. Nifty still in a downtrend, but a correction against a 550 points fall can also lead towards a healthy upmove.
Supports: Supports for the day lies @ 4865 & 4845, reversal from 4757 is having pivot on those place. Intra bulls will try to hold that. A confirmed break below 4820 will bring more weakness though and it may head towards 4760-4730 again.
Resistances: 4896/4900 is immediate. 4938 will be pivotal for the day for an immediate breakout towards 4975/80-5010/15.
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