Google+ March 2010 ~ NIFTY DEMYSTIFIED

Wednesday, March 31, 2010


Finally 5350 resulted into deeper correction. Hope the discussion about 5350 resistance helped to create short/book longs. In fact mid term reversal points lies @ 5160-5100. In intra nifty has shown some attempt to correct on the upside.
Supports: As Nifty is witnessing upward correction on the shortest time frame, 5250/45 is the main support for the day for that to remain. Below that 5230-5215 is crucial point of nifty for a reversal. Positional support lies @ 5160-5115 for nifty.
Resistance: 5280 is key now. Sustaining above that make nifty move little more upward towards 5305-5320-5330. Fresh positional longs are to be taken either on the break of 5350 or around positional support discussed.

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After a prolonged discussions and number of posts market finally reacted from the said resistance/first positional targets. Though it was the 5350 levels we saw on the chart, but it reacted from 5344, but it was really marginal. In the last trading session it also broke the 5280 level, thus initialing a 5 wave down move on the 5 minute chart. Now the reversal signals for long-mid term are yet to come, we need to book our created shorts (as discussed on previous posts) around crucial positional support levels.
Supports: 5260/55 will work as first crucial support zone. As mentioned, there is an 5 wave decline can be seen on the 5 minutes chart, a break below 5255 can bring 5230-5215 in no time. Below that the decline and can get more deeper towards the main support zone @ 5180-5160.
Resistances: 5285 is certainly the most crucial from intra day perspective. Above that Nifty can witness some recovery towards 5310-5330 and decide further price action.
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Tuesday, March 30, 2010


As discussed on the last few days about one positional targets of Nifty @ 5350, it touched 5344 yesterday. though there is no weakness on the price part, but it's advisable to book longs and try some shorts with a smallest of stop losses.
Support: 5315 is pivotal for the day, below that nifty can give push towards 5280/75-5255. Intra day shorts should be booked around those levels.
Resistances: 5350 as of now. Sustaining above that it can bring 5390-5450/60 very easily before taking any pause.
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Friday, March 26, 2010


Support: The positional targets are certainly @ 5350-5450/60 now. On the downside 5250/55-5225 will work as buying zone. Below that 5180 is crucial for short term trend reversal.
Resistances: 5280/85 will be the first one. Above that fresh breakout for the positional target will take place with an intermediate hurdle @ 5305. positional targets are 5345/50-5440/60 as discussed earlier.
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Thursday, March 25, 2010


Discussed of 5255 as the probable support on last day. and the same has been converted to resistance point for the time being now.
Supports: Nifty is still stuck in the range of 5185-5255/60. below 5185, lower levels like 5155/60-5140(mild)-5110-5095 are possible positionally.
Resistances: 5255/60 is important, above that it will attempt a new high towards 5295-5340/45.
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Monday, March 22, 2010


The longer term trend is still in tact, but some weakness on indicator part is talking about a impending correction. It may be shallow or little deeper than expected but price is most probably to take the u-turn after realization of the support levels.
Supports: 5255 is immediate. Below that it will bring on 5220/15 again to test the intra day bulls. Below that 5170/60 is well possible. Positional support lies @ 5120/15-5050/30. This uptrend will be in tact as long it holds above 5030. 
Resistance: All positional targets are intact. Above 5285, it will target previously discussed 5340/50-5440 as it's final targets.
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Friday, March 19, 2010


5215/20 indeed working as the huge support zone for the bulls. These are 2 consecutive days when nifty reversed from that zone. So clearly that holds the key. Sustaining that nifty should stay unchanged in terms of it's trend. But meanwhile it will face some upper-head resistances going forwards.
Supports: All the levels  remain same. 5215 is the pivotal for Nifty in coming few sessions, below that it can target 5175-5130 before deciding the fall's fate (whether correction/reversal).
Resistances: 5290/95 is important, above that 5335/45 will be place to book your longs. Then a move above 5350 or a dip near crucial support zones should be used as buying opportunity.
Try to trade the support-resistance range rather than jumping in between.
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Thursday, March 18, 2010


Supports: As positional targets looks to be on the upside, supports should be utilized as the buying opportunities. More the dip, more will be the profit potential. 5215 is the pivotal from intra-day perspective. Below that 5200-5165/70 is possible, which is a crucial zone as a mid term support. Below that 5140-5100 are the possibilities.
Resistances: 5255-5285 are the hurdles, intra day correction can be expected from these points. Above that 5340/50-5460 will be positional targets as discussed above.
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Tuesday, March 16, 2010


As discussed yesterday, Nifty bounced from 5110/5100, support zone provided on last post. 5125 proved to be a pivotal zone, and I feel it'll continue to be like that, but may be from intra-day perspective. Nifty still can't manage to go above 5165/75 zone, so will stick to the view booking profit and intra shorts on any upside ti;; closes above 5175 (will consider the fib level on closing basis).
Supports: Nothing much to look at from intra-day perspective as range is getting narrower everyday. 5125 will again as immediate support and below that 5100-5085/80 will be targeted again. further downside can bring 5060/55-5020 to decide further movement.
Resistances: Sustaining above 5025 can bring 5155 initially and then decide the course of the day. But will advice to avoid these micro moves rather than concentrating on positional levels (only because the range is so sticky). 5165/75 remains the main level. Above that 5195-5215/20 can come in no time.
Be patient and proper trading opportunity will come, impulse can hit your s/l both way in such a narrow movement.
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Sunday, March 14, 2010


Supports: As shown in the above chart, a failure to break 5168.8 (high posted on last Friday), can unfold a 5 wave down move. But in all bearish possibilities targets are not below 5110/5100 below 5125. Below 5100 it may witness little more sell-off towards 5085/80-5060/50.
Resistances: 5170/75 remains the same. Above that fresh breakout may lead it towards5195-5215/20-5240. With a positional target of 5340-5430 above 5180, closing basis.
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Friday, March 12, 2010


As we were discussing for the last few days, 5165 is one of the target and most crucial resistances for the current up move. And today it's achieved at last minute trading. We may close with a very strong fashion, but as 5165/75 is not crossed, I will keenly look forward towards the price action before concluding about any chance for further gain/pause in the price movement, but would like to suggest profit booking for once to the traders who are holding longs, and consider re-enter above 5180/85 once again, for higher levels.
Supports: 5150-5130 is the main support. Above that no weakness can be confirmed. Below that 5105-5085 will the place to watch out for, below which nifty can get weak for further lower levels towards 5055/50-5020.
Resistances: 5165/75 holds the key clearly. Will obviously advice to book some of your profit and aggressive trader can go for a short as s/l is very small (5185). Above 5175, 5195-5215/20-5240 is possible, where 5340-5430 can be targeted positionally by nifty.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010


Supports: 5085/80 zone is important support zone for the very first session. Intra short taken @ higher levels can be booked once. Below that 5060/55-5025 will the main support level.
Resistances: 5125 remains as the main resistance. above that 5145-5165/75 as discussed before. 
Be patient for the proper levels to arrive as the market is very narrowly range bound. Otherwise it can only lead to whipsaws.
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Tuesday, March 9, 2010


Supports: 5105 will act as immediate support. below that 5085-5060/55 will act as main support for the day. The bearish wolfe aslo targeting the same place @ 5060.
Resistances: 5125/30 be will initial hurdle. Above that it can again move up to 5150 and 5170. Will advise to be in lighter position in up move as market looks overstretched while nearing the major resistances. 5165-75 is the place to look very closely. fresh longs can be initiated above 5180, preferably closing basis.
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Monday, March 8, 2010


Into a new week once again and Nifty is still holding up it's support although reacted a bit from the higher level last Friday. Frankly nifty is in a clear yet dicey situation where levels will work well, but trend will still under some doubt, be it down or up. Actually the decisiveness comes from the larger move and it often occurs in case of Index movements. We had a steep fall of almost 650 points from 5303 up to 4667. The movement is indicating towards 5 wave decline where the extensions might or might not took place. In that case another leg of down move can be expected. Bit it's not all simple enough. The up move from 4520 (the previous bottom to 4667) which showed a high of 5303 is still to achieve the targets of 5330-5440 (I gave on the blog), and more importantly, the move is still not invalidated as long 4600 is holding. Hope I am able to complicate the things well for you people so that I can start explaining it :-)
I have discussed the positional view in stead of intra as I feel that we are very close to a pivotal place, where we can take positional views for higher gains than intra day trading.
Supports: 5050 is very crucial for the day. Below that further weak can bring 5035-5020. Below that 4970-4920 will decide the fate of the larger trend.
Resistances: 5115 is pivotal for the day on the upside. Above that one can play for 5135-5165/70, which is to be looked @ very cautiously.
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Friday, March 5, 2010


Firstly sorry for not being able to post for yesterday. A viral fever got onto my head and made me little weak, physically.
Immediate trend is certainly up but in a overstretched/overbought zone. A very tricky kind intra day scenario is panning out as far as the trading concerned. Nifty with higher target on the chart may encourage more bulls, but overstretched status of nifty can certainly make trading very difficult. Utilizing handsome dips/rally for buy/sell respectively may prove to be a better idea.
Supports: Nifty actually has developed a cluster of support on the downside which may play out as a buying place in the current scenario. 5055-5035/30 is the main support for the day, however breaking of these levels can bring 5005-4970/75 for the real test of the bulls.
Resistances: 5105-5135 can be targeted by nifty holding those support levels. 5165/70 will be a tough hurdle to breach.
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Wednesday, March 3, 2010


Discussed about 4960/75 zone for the last few days last week, a break out above that level (high made 5002 on Friday) has certainly made those level most strong support as of now. Today after gap up it touched 4967 for once and moved back northward.
Supports: 4975-4960 is the support area as of now. Below that up to 4920-4880-4840, but in any case this is a impulse move, it should not go below 4960 zone
Resistances: 5050/60 remains intact. Above that 5095-5150-5220 positionally possible. But would like to book some profit of long around 5060 zone and wait for the proper signals.
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Tuesday, March 2, 2010


Supports: Though immediate movement is giving us a hint of another round of upmove before really settle down for next leg of rally on any direction.4920-4885 most important place for going long, below that 4842 will be most crucial and trend decider. Below that 4750-4710/15 possible.
Resistances: 4975 and 5005 are big. Above that 5025-5060 possible and decide the further move.
All in all trend up for 5060 target but shorter term chart is nearing bigger resistance zone @ 5060.
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